Russian Builds Its New Empire With Finance, Not Fear

RUSSIAN BUILDS ITS NEW EMPIRE WITH FINANCE, NOT FEAR
Tony Halpin in Moscow

Times Online
February 5, 2009

>From Belarus to the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russian power and
influence is at its greatest height since the Soviet collapse

Whatever the economic calamities ahead, this year is proving an
excellent one for the political project of forging a new Russian
empire.

A plethora initiatives from the of Kremlin is binding most of Russia’s
former Soviet satellites ever more tightly to Moscow. Only yesterday
the Kremlin created a rapid reaction force with six of the states
and an economic bailout fund with four of them.

The reaction force will be under central command, which will
undoubtedly be in Moscow since Russia is providing most of the
troops. Soldiers from Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will once again learn to take orders
in Russian.

Russia is also putting up $7.5 billion (��5.19 billion) of a $10
billion mutual rescue fund it established with Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Despite growing hardship for millions
of Russians at home, the Kremlin also offered to throw billions of
roubles at Belarus after both countries agreed to form a joint air
defence system pointed at Europe.

He who pays the piper calls the tune as the United States learned
painfully on Tuesday from President Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan, who
served notice t o quit a key airbase for supplying Nato forces in
Afghanistan. A gleeful Kremlin denied any link between that decision
and the $2.15 billion in loans and aid it had given the impoverished
republic just moments earlier.

Washington is flirting with Tajikistan as another potential base
for Afghan supplies. President Rakhmon, enjoying the attention,
apparently felt emboldened enough to cancel his visit to Moscow
initially, but quickly thought better of it.

Having squeezed the US military out of Central Asia, Russia is
determined to prevent the European Union becoming a rival for energy
in its backyard. The EU is desperate to break Russia’s grip on gas
by securing new supplies from the region through the Caucasus.

President Medvedev beat them to Uzbekistan where his Uzbek counterpart,
Islam Karimov, pledged last month to double supplies to Russia, adding
reassuringly that Uzbekistan "sells gas to Russia and to Russia only".

Gas-rich Turkmenistan offers hope but only if the Caucasus remains
open as a conduit for pipelines. Since the war with Georgia last
summer and the de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
Russia has returned to the region with a bang.

Armenia is little more than a vassal state, having sold most of its
economic infrastructure to Russian companies. The "frozen conflict"
between Armenia and neighbouring Azerbaijan over the disputed territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh gives the Kremlin further leverage.

0D Moscow denied Azeri claims last month that it had funnelled arms
worth $800 million to Armenia, which is host to a Russian military
base. But both sides understand that Russia could tip the balance of
power in either direction if it chooses.

>From Belarus to the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russian power
and influence is now at its greatest height since the Soviet
collapse. While Kremlin ruled its old empire with fear, it is building
its new one on finance.

Only Ukraine remains beyond Moscow’s so-called "sphere of influence"
despite the recent bruising gas war. Presidential elections are just
11 months away, however, offering the Kremlin empire-builders a great
opportunity to avenge the setback of the pro-western Orange revolution.